Recently, with the progress of relevant peace agreements, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has shown signs of easing, effectively alleviating global energy supply constraints. The decline in crude oil prices has led to lower inflation expectations, and market expectations for the tightening path of major central banks' monetary policies have adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the artificial intelligence (AI) industry chain maintains a high level of activity, with several chip and memory companies raising their financial guidance, changing investors' profit expectations for the technology sector and driving capital inflows into US stocks and major Asia-Pacific markets. Driven by both adjustments in macro liquidity expectations and changes in industry fundamentals, the US, Japanese, and South Korean stock markets have recently exhibited a phase of convergence.

Energy Channel May Gradually Reopen

Consensus on Inflation Expectations and Adjustments in Monetary Policy Expectations

The potential phased recovery of shipping functions in the Strait of Hormuz is a significant macroeconomic variable in recent changes in global risk asset sentiment. According to the memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran, the strait has entered a 60-day transitional passage period, during which no passage fees will be charged, and the US Treasury Department has simultaneously issued oil export exemption permits. Industry monitoring data shows that at least 36 merchant ships transited the strait on June 22, the highest single-day number in nearly four months, representing about one-third of the previous peak.

The effects of supply-side changes are directly reflected in crude oil pricing. As of the close of trading on June 23, the price of light sweet crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $73.21 per barrel, a slight decrease from the previous high.

From a macroeconomic transmission perspective, declining energy costs are having a significant impact on short-term inflation expectations. U.S. gasoline prices have fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since March, and the easing of pressure on end-user energy consumption helps weaken the sustained momentum of wage-price transmission. Although the Fed's June FOMC meeting was generally hawkish, the decline in oil prices provides more reference variables for the subsequent monetary policy path, and the market's expectations for the federal funds target rate endpoint have been marginally revised downward, easing the pressure on risk assets to rise in interest rates.

AI boom cycle continues:

Strengthened fundamentals support the technology sector

Against the backdrop of marginal adjustments in macro liquidity expectations, the fundamental momentum of the technology sector itself constitutes another driving factor for market gains. Capital expenditure centered on artificial intelligence continues to expand, and the demand for computing infrastructure is showing spillover effects, extending further to chip design, manufacturing, and storage, leading to upward revisions in profit forecasts for related companies.

During the Asia-Pacific trading session on June 24, Nasdaq 100 futures opened 0.43% higher, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.18%. In Asia-Pacific stock markets, the South Korean KOSPI index initially rose by 3%, with Samsung Electronics gaining over 6%; the Nikkei 225 index rebounded during the session, with technology stocks contributing significantly to the index.

Market focus is currently on the financial performance of semiconductor and storage companies. Micron Technology's third-quarter report on Wednesday showed a significant year-on-year revenue increase, benefiting from growing demand related to artificial intelligence. Boosted by the earnings data, the stock rose in after-hours trading.

As the demand for AI computing power evolves, memory chip companies, represented by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, are transforming from traditional cyclical commodity-driven entities to core players in computing power. The valuation system and market positioning of this sector are undergoing structural adjustments.

Market Linkage in Three Regions

The Resonance of Macroeconomic Factors and Industry Logic

The coordinated performance of the US, Japanese, and South Korean stock markets is primarily influenced by the following core driving factors:

1. Declining energy prices alleviate imported inflationary pressures.

Oil price fluctuations have a general impact on economies with high energy import dependence, such as the US, Japan, and South Korea. Reduced input costs for businesses provide some support for actual purchasing power at the household level.

2. Adjustments in expectations regarding monetary policy paths.

With reduced inflationary uncertainty, market pricing for subsequent monetary policy measures by major central banks has diverged. Investors are reassessing the policy pace of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Korea, leading to a temporary correction of previously extreme tightening expectations.

3. The globalization of the AI industry chain triggers cross-market linkages

US chip design, Japanese semiconductor materials and equipment, and South Korean memory chip manufacturing constitute crucial links in the global semiconductor supply chain. Demand expansion in one segment can be transmitted to other markets through the supply chain mechanism, thereby driving a synchronized adjustment in the profit expectations of related sectors.

Summary

Overall, the current pricing logic in these three markets is primarily based on the dual foundations of "energy risk premium adjustment" and "validation of the technology sector's fundamentals." The subsequent structural trends in the markets will continue to depend on further guidance from core macroeconomic indicators such as core PCE and employment data regarding the monetary policy paths of various countries.